Seasonality
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NWS - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +10.1% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.4% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +10.4% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.3% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +5.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
NWS - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
NWS Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
NWS Distribution of Daily % Changes
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.96% | -13.89% | 6.85% | 6.91% | -2.17% | -5.90% | 11.44% | 6.08% | ||||
| 2025 | 4.01% | 1.99% | -5.61% | 3.46% | 4.14% | 4.86% | -2.59% | 1.35% | 2.32% | -11.81% | -3.41% | 0.68% |
| 2024 | -0.58% | 9.46% | -2.97% | -9.31% | 13.61% | 1.83% | 0.35% | 3.30% | -4.68% | 3.90% | 10.50% | -5.17% |
| 2023 | 10.85% | -15.56% | 1.63% | 1.84% | 4.11% | 6.71% | 1.98% | 9.40% | -4.70% | 2.73% | 7.46% | 11.63% |
| 2022 | -1.16% | 0.85% | 0.87% | -11.59% | -11.70% | -9.61% | 8.75% | -0.23% | -10.06% | 11.09% | 13.54% | -5.19% |
| 2021 | 6.25% | 21.40% | 2.77% | 3.62% | 5.68% | -5.22% | -3.45% | -6.30% | 5.94% | -2.88% | -4.48% | 4.41% |
| 2020 | -10.95% | -27.04% | 13.68% | 19.96% | -2.53% | 6.78% | 18.10% | -6.62% | -6.87% | 36.79% | -0.22% | |
| Avg | 4.05% | -0.96% | -3.36% | 1.23% | 4.80% | -1.41% | 3.32% | 4.27% | -2.96% | -0.64% | 10.07% | 1.02% |