Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +17.6% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.8% with only a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +24.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +18.2% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 182 of the year, the current YTD return is -53.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
NVDA - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
NVDA - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
NVDA Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.48% | -7.29% | -1.57% | 14.43% | 5.80% | -5.12% | 0.33% | 9.98% | 2.26% | |||
| 2025 | -10.59% | 4.04% | -13.23% | 0.50% | 24.06% | 16.93% | 12.58% | -2.07% | 7.13% | 8.53% | -12.59% | 5.37% |
| 2024 | 24.24% | 28.58% | 14.22% | -4.38% | 26.89% | 12.69% | -5.28% | 2.01% | 1.74% | 9.32% | 4.14% | -2.86% |
| 2023 | 33.69% | 18.83% | 19.67% | -0.10% | 36.34% | 11.82% | 10.47% | 5.62% | -11.86% | -6.25% | 14.69% | 5.89% |
| 2022 | -16.75% | -0.41% | 11.92% | -32.03% | 0.67% | -18.80% | 19.82% | -16.90% | -19.55% | 11.19% | 25.42% | -13.64% |
| 2021 | -0.50% | 5.58% | -2.64% | 12.45% | 8.23% | 23.16% | -2.52% | 14.82% | -7.46% | 23.42% | 27.81% | -9.98% |
| 2020 | 14.30% | -2.40% | 10.88% | 21.47% | 7.06% | 11.76% | 26.00% | 1.20% | -7.36% | 6.92% | -2.56% | |
| Avg | 5.43% | 9.09% | 3.71% | 0.25% | 17.64% | 6.82% | 6.74% | 5.64% | -4.80% | 6.47% | 11.06% | -2.96% |
NVDA Distribution of Daily % Changes