Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +13.5% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -6.2% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +16.6% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.1% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +85.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -9.59% | 2.78% | 3.39% | 8.74% | 57.34% | -11.21% | 15.69% | 16.01% | ||||
| 2025 | 5.66% | -18.26% | -11.99% | 2.83% | 10.48% | 7.45% | -1.80% | 8.32% | 5.03% | -0.14% | -5.28% | -4.01% |
| 2024 | -0.51% | 2.20% | 17.79% | -2.17% | 17.83% | 6.95% | -1.02% | -4.93% | 2.31% | -6.24% | 6.36% | -5.35% |
| 2023 | 11.17% | -2.54% | -1.08% | -0.72% | 5.50% | 15.15% | 2.78% | -1.68% | -1.07% | -3.44% | 25.57% | -3.53% |
| 2022 | -5.45% | -9.40% | 5.89% | -11.19% | -1.77% | -9.33% | 10.20% | 1.12% | -14.25% | 12.84% | -2.40% | -11.17% |
| 2021 | 1.05% | -5.78% | 16.09% | 3.45% | 3.59% | 5.75% | -2.13% | 11.74% | 0.93% | 0.04% | -0.47% | 3.50% |
| 2020 | -12.51% | -10.77% | 6.26% | 1.76% | -0.38% | 0.95% | 6.98% | -7.49% | 1.20% | 21.46% | 24.25% | |
| Avg | 0.39% | -6.21% | 2.76% | 1.03% | 13.53% | 2.06% | 3.53% | 3.59% | -2.42% | 0.71% | 7.54% | 0.62% |
NTAP - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
NTAP - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
NTAP Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
NTAP Distribution of Daily % Changes