Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.9% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.1% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +11.5% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.5% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is +13.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
NSC - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
NSC - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
NSC Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.87% | 8.55% | -8.81% | 10.05% | -3.02% | 3.16% | 6.64% | 2.58% | -8.10% | |||
| 2025 | 8.78% | -3.22% | -3.62% | -5.40% | 10.97% | 3.58% | 8.61% | 1.20% | 7.30% | -5.67% | 3.57% | -1.15% |
| 2024 | -0.48% | 8.33% | 0.59% | -9.63% | -1.82% | -4.50% | 16.24% | 3.21% | -2.99% | 0.78% | 10.75% | -14.92% |
| 2023 | -0.25% | -8.04% | -5.70% | -4.23% | 3.22% | 8.93% | 3.01% | -11.72% | -3.94% | -3.12% | 15.16% | 8.35% |
| 2022 | -8.64% | -5.27% | 11.19% | -9.59% | -6.63% | -5.16% | 10.51% | -2.72% | -13.77% | 8.79% | 13.09% | -3.93% |
| 2021 | -0.42% | 6.96% | 6.53% | 3.99% | 0.94% | -5.51% | -2.86% | -1.24% | -5.64% | 22.49% | -9.14% | 12.23% |
| 2020 | -12.03% | -19.93% | 17.19% | 4.79% | -1.53% | 9.48% | 11.11% | 0.69% | -2.28% | 13.83% | 0.25% | |
| Avg | -0.02% | -0.68% | -2.82% | 0.34% | 1.21% | -0.15% | 7.38% | 0.35% | -3.06% | 3.50% | 7.88% | 0.14% |
NSC Distribution of Daily % Changes