Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +9.3% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -2.0% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +18.1% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.5% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -50.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
NRG - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.15% | 17.62% | -18.34% | 6.46% | -13.56% | 8.94% | -8.06% | -5.66% | ||||
| 2025 | 13.54% | 3.64% | -9.70% | 14.79% | 42.84% | 3.00% | 4.12% | -12.71% | 11.26% | 6.12% | -1.13% | -6.05% |
| 2024 | 3.37% | 4.30% | 22.36% | 7.95% | 11.46% | -3.88% | -3.45% | 13.71% | 7.16% | -0.77% | 12.91% | -11.21% |
| 2023 | 8.77% | -4.18% | 4.57% | 0.77% | -1.11% | 10.65% | 2.63% | -1.16% | 2.58% | 11.01% | 12.88% | 8.07% |
| 2022 | -6.49% | -5.23% | 1.37% | -5.52% | 28.25% | -17.09% | -0.17% | 9.35% | -7.29% | 16.93% | -4.39% | -25.04% |
| 2021 | 11.16% | -11.83% | 3.34% | -4.21% | -10.25% | 25.35% | 3.14% | 10.74% | -10.60% | -1.52% | -9.70% | 19.60% |
| 2020 | -9.98% | -17.92% | 24.08% | 7.52% | -9.68% | 4.77% | 1.77% | -10.67% | 3.85% | 3.57% | 14.66% | |
| Avg | 4.37% | -0.81% | -2.04% | 6.33% | 9.31% | 2.47% | 0.43% | 3.62% | -1.26% | 5.94% | 2.36% | 0.00% |
NRG - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
NRG Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
NRG Distribution of Daily % Changes