Seasonality
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Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +6.9% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Apr shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Apr averages -4.9% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +10.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +2.2% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 182 of the year, the current YTD return is -35.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
NFLX - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
NFLX - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
NFLX Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -10.95% | 15.27% | -0.09% | -2.64% | -8.11% | -17.00% | 0.43% | 13.02% | -11.96% | |||
| 2025 | 9.59% | 0.39% | -4.90% | 21.36% | 6.67% | 10.93% | -13.42% | 4.21% | -0.77% | -6.68% | -3.85% | -12.85% |
| 2024 | 15.86% | 6.88% | 0.73% | -9.33% | 16.52% | 5.18% | -6.89% | 11.62% | 1.13% | 6.59% | 17.30% | 0.51% |
| 2023 | 20.00% | -8.97% | 7.25% | -4.50% | 19.79% | 11.45% | -0.35% | -1.21% | -12.93% | 9.03% | 15.13% | 2.72% |
| 2022 | -29.10% | -7.64% | -5.05% | -49.18% | 3.72% | -11.43% | 28.61% | -0.60% | 5.31% | 23.97% | 4.68% | -3.49% |
| 2021 | -1.54% | 1.21% | -3.19% | -1.57% | -2.08% | 5.05% | -2.01% | 9.97% | 7.23% | 13.10% | -7.01% | -6.15% |
| 2020 | 6.94% | 1.75% | 11.81% | -0.03% | 8.41% | 7.44% | 8.32% | -5.58% | -4.86% | 3.14% | 10.20% | |
| Avg | 0.64% | 2.01% | -0.50% | -4.87% | 5.21% | 1.80% | 1.97% | 6.48% | -0.93% | 6.86% | 4.90% | -1.51% |
NFLX Distribution of Daily % Changes