Seasonality
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Mar is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Mar averages +8.6% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -3.1% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +10.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +10.3% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +4.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
NEM Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
NEM Distribution of Daily % Changes
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.52% | 15.71% | -16.56% | 2.62% | -0.92% | -14.94% | 0.33% | 25.66% | ||||
| 2025 | 14.78% | 0.28% | 13.37% | 9.11% | 0.54% | 10.51% | 6.59% | 19.81% | 13.70% | -3.96% | 12.38% | 10.05% |
| 2024 | -16.62% | -9.45% | 15.59% | 13.39% | 3.20% | 0.43% | 17.20% | 8.80% | 0.60% | -14.99% | -7.15% | -11.25% |
| 2023 | 12.14% | -17.61% | 13.47% | -3.30% | -13.60% | 5.20% | 0.61% | -8.15% | -5.29% | 1.41% | 8.33% | 2.99% |
| 2022 | -1.37% | 8.22% | 20.87% | -8.31% | -6.86% | -11.34% | -24.12% | -8.66% | 2.98% | 0.69% | 12.17% | 0.61% |
| 2021 | -0.48% | -8.76% | 11.91% | 3.55% | 17.74% | -13.10% | -0.88% | -7.69% | -5.47% | -0.55% | 1.70% | 14.04% |
| 2020 | -0.95% | 1.74% | 31.36% | -1.70% | 6.05% | 12.08% | -2.77% | -5.33% | -0.96% | -6.40% | 2.50% | |
| Avg | 3.49% | -1.79% | 8.63% | 6.92% | -0.23% | -2.46% | 1.69% | 0.22% | 0.20% | -3.06% | 3.50% | 3.16% |
NEM - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
NEM - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years