Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
May is the seasonally strongest month over 2Y.
May averages +64.4% with a 100% win rate across 2 years of history.
Jul shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jul averages -16.3% with only a 0% win rate across 2 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +119.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +2.5% historically, with January alone posting a 100% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 2Y seasonal average.
At day 182 of the year, the current YTD return is +87.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
NBIS - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
2 years of data
NBIS - Average returns for the respective month in the last 2 years
NBIS Distribution of Daily Returns from 2024 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.77% | 7.04% | 13.78% | 33.22% | 67.18% | 19.51% | -31.05% | 8.36% | 9.83% | |||
| 2025 | 17.91% | -0.52% | -35.03% | 7.67% | 61.68% | 50.56% | -1.63% | 25.52% | 64.33% | 16.52% | -27.48% | -11.77% |
| 2024 | 2.85% | 25.97% | ||||||||||
| Avg | 9.84% | 3.26% | -10.62% | 20.45% | 64.43% | 35.03% | -16.34% | 16.94% | 64.33% | 16.52% | -12.31% | 7.10% |
NBIS Distribution of Daily % Changes