Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +19.0% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jul shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jul averages -6.1% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +29.6% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +11.4% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 182 of the year, the current YTD return is +222.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
MU - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MU - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MU Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 45.36% | -0.60% | -18.04% | 53.08% | 87.76% | 18.88% | -28.69% | 16.49% | 11.80% | |||
| 2025 | 8.41% | 2.62% | -7.08% | -11.44% | 22.75% | 30.48% | -11.36% | 9.04% | 40.59% | 33.82% | 5.68% | 20.74% |
| 2024 | 0.48% | 5.67% | 30.23% | -4.18% | 10.66% | 5.22% | -16.43% | -12.37% | 7.76% | -3.81% | -1.71% | -13.97% |
| 2023 | 20.65% | -4.11% | 4.36% | 6.88% | 5.97% | -7.46% | 13.33% | -2.03% | -2.73% | -1.54% | 13.83% | 12.26% |
| 2022 | -11.68% | 8.01% | -12.35% | -12.33% | 8.29% | -25.14% | 12.12% | -8.62% | -11.37% | 8.21% | 6.56% | -13.11% |
| 2021 | 4.11% | 16.94% | -3.63% | -2.43% | -2.24% | 1.00% | -8.71% | -5.00% | -3.56% | -2.65% | 21.56% | 11.01% |
| 2020 | -1.00% | -19.98% | 13.86% | 0.04% | 7.53% | -2.83% | -9.09% | 3.19% | 7.20% | 27.31% | 17.30% | |
| Avg | 11.22% | 3.93% | -3.78% | 6.21% | 19.03% | 4.36% | -6.08% | -1.65% | 5.65% | 6.87% | 12.21% | 5.71% |
MU Distribution of Daily % Changes