Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +20.3% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Dec shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Dec averages -8.7% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +41.6% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +41.6% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 182 of the year, the current YTD return is -45.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
MSTR - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MSTR - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MSTR Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.47% | -13.50% | -3.63% | 32.57% | -3.84% | -45.36% | 7.30% | 42.52% | 22.01% | |||
| 2025 | 15.60% | -23.70% | 12.86% | 31.86% | -2.91% | 9.53% | -0.59% | -16.78% | -3.65% | -16.36% | -34.26% | -14.24% |
| 2024 | -20.65% | 104.07% | 66.65% | -37.52% | 43.14% | -9.64% | 17.20% | -17.98% | 27.32% | 45.02% | 58.47% | -25.25% |
| 2023 | 77.81% | 4.19% | 11.46% | 12.34% | -8.15% | 13.52% | 27.88% | -18.35% | -8.18% | 28.97% | 17.69% | 26.75% |
| 2022 | -32.41% | 20.38% | 9.78% | -27.17% | -25.26% | -37.93% | 74.11% | -19.05% | -8.33% | 26.03% | -25.95% | -28.53% |
| 2021 | 58.88% | 21.56% | -9.54% | -3.19% | -28.48% | 41.38% | -5.79% | 10.91% | -16.69% | 23.63% | 0.89% | -24.53% |
| 2020 | -11.10% | -12.62% | 6.97% | -1.46% | -4.97% | 4.76% | 16.56% | 4.24% | 10.97% | 105.17% | 13.36% | |
| Avg | 16.29% | 14.56% | 10.71% | 2.27% | -3.85% | -4.78% | 17.84% | -0.31% | -0.88% | 19.71% | 20.34% | -8.74% |
MSTR Distribution of Daily % Changes