Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +5.9% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.8% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +11.8% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.2% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -7.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -11.03% | -8.52% | -5.75% | 10.16% | 10.65% | -17.15% | 24.58% | 6.60% | ||||
| 2025 | -1.53% | -4.16% | -5.44% | 5.29% | 16.68% | 8.05% | 7.26% | -4.87% | 2.22% | -0.03% | -4.80% | -1.71% |
| 2024 | 5.73% | 4.23% | 1.71% | -7.46% | 6.82% | 7.67% | -6.40% | -0.11% | 3.15% | -5.57% | 4.42% | -0.46% |
| 2023 | 3.33% | 0.90% | 15.59% | 6.58% | 7.11% | 3.70% | -1.36% | -2.22% | -3.66% | 7.08% | 12.29% | -0.76% |
| 2022 | -7.53% | -3.72% | 3.19% | -9.99% | -1.81% | -5.53% | 9.31% | -6.67% | -10.93% | -0.33% | 10.22% | -6.00% |
| 2021 | 4.29% | 0.41% | 1.46% | 6.96% | -0.76% | 8.50% | 5.17% | 6.16% | -6.61% | 17.63% | -0.13% | 1.73% |
| 2020 | -4.57% | -2.65% | 13.63% | 2.54% | 11.06% | 0.74% | 10.28% | -6.74% | -3.74% | 6.01% | 3.90% | |
| Avg | -1.12% | -2.20% | 1.16% | 3.60% | 5.89% | 2.33% | 5.61% | 0.43% | -3.76% | 2.51% | 4.67% | -0.55% |
MSFT - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MSFT - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MSFT Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MSFT Distribution of Daily % Changes