Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +8.9% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.1% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +16.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +9.8% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +36.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
MPWR - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.03% | 1.65% | -4.13% | 47.66% | -2.99% | -11.60% | 3.16% | -1.68% | ||||
| 2025 | 7.72% | -4.14% | -4.82% | 2.26% | 11.60% | 10.73% | -2.75% | 17.51% | 10.35% | 9.16% | -7.64% | -2.18% |
| 2024 | -4.45% | 19.47% | -5.74% | -1.19% | 9.91% | 11.87% | 5.04% | 8.29% | -0.96% | -17.87% | -25.24% | 4.45% |
| 2023 | 20.63% | 13.53% | 3.57% | -7.71% | 6.05% | 10.48% | 3.57% | -6.84% | -11.16% | -4.39% | 24.22% | 15.14% |
| 2022 | -18.32% | 13.84% | 6.04% | -19.24% | 14.83% | -14.57% | 21.01% | -2.48% | -19.65% | -6.59% | 12.52% | -7.22% |
| 2021 | -2.99% | 5.41% | -5.52% | 2.31% | -5.05% | 9.01% | 20.30% | 10.17% | -1.95% | 8.41% | 5.33% | -10.76% |
| 2020 | -7.32% | 5.89% | 19.38% | 4.92% | 13.24% | 11.82% | 0.80% | 4.86% | 14.30% | 0.11% | 14.62% | |
| Avg | 4.44% | 6.06% | -0.68% | 6.21% | 5.61% | 4.17% | 8.88% | 4.57% | -3.08% | 0.51% | 1.55% | 2.34% |
MPWR - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MPWR Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MPWR Distribution of Daily % Changes