Seasonality
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Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +6.8% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -5.5% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +10.1% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +10.1% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 187 of the year, the current YTD return is -21.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
MOS - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MOS - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MOS Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.16% | 1.24% | -7.63% | -8.75% | 3.75% | -11.34% | 4.39% | 9.04% | -0.95% | |||
| 2025 | 13.47% | -14.23% | 13.96% | 12.55% | 18.88% | 1.55% | -1.29% | -7.25% | 4.54% | -20.85% | -10.78% | -0.73% |
| 2024 | -14.05% | 1.47% | 4.88% | -3.30% | -1.47% | -5.88% | 3.01% | -4.03% | -5.54% | -0.07% | -1.12% | -6.37% |
| 2023 | 12.92% | 7.37% | -12.96% | -6.60% | -24.96% | 9.51% | 16.46% | -4.69% | -7.90% | -8.76% | 10.50% | 0.12% |
| 2022 | 1.68% | 31.24% | 27.11% | -6.14% | 0.37% | -24.43% | 11.50% | 2.57% | -10.28% | 11.21% | -4.28% | -14.48% |
| 2021 | 12.82% | 13.25% | 7.69% | 11.29% | 2.73% | -11.53% | -2.13% | 3.04% | 11.26% | 16.38% | -17.68% | 15.07% |
| 2020 | -14.16% | -36.28% | 6.38% | 5.04% | 3.88% | 7.67% | 35.34% | 0.49% | 1.26% | 18.70% | 5.02% | |
| Avg | 6.83% | 3.74% | -0.46% | 0.78% | 0.62% | -5.46% | 5.66% | 4.86% | -1.20% | -0.14% | -0.78% | -0.23% |
MOS Distribution of Daily % Changes