Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +7.1% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -5.6% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +6.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.5% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +10.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.33% | 8.42% | -12.15% | 0.89% | 5.05% | 5.73% | 8.88% | 3.61% | ||||
| 2025 | 17.90% | 2.42% | -5.32% | -5.41% | 7.32% | 2.62% | -1.98% | 4.71% | -0.23% | 7.29% | 3.78% | -6.95% |
| 2024 | -13.69% | -0.74% | 15.14% | 8.82% | 4.48% | 2.05% | 24.82% | 6.17% | 1.49% | -6.02% | 4.49% | -3.33% |
| 2023 | -4.04% | -5.14% | -2.44% | 1.06% | -10.82% | 7.27% | 11.40% | -2.90% | -12.23% | -2.85% | 10.64% | 10.35% |
| 2022 | -6.54% | -9.60% | 0.15% | -3.13% | 4.56% | -13.32% | 10.69% | -12.30% | -11.14% | 13.84% | 1.32% | -4.80% |
| 2021 | 0.50% | 0.48% | 10.07% | 2.31% | 3.75% | -2.17% | -0.35% | -0.87% | -9.92% | 1.86% | -4.06% | 4.46% |
| 2020 | -5.09% | -8.53% | 11.29% | 4.00% | -0.29% | -3.54% | 9.33% | -1.74% | -0.14% | 8.92% | 1.19% | |
| Avg | -1.70% | -1.32% | -0.44% | 2.26% | 2.62% | 0.27% | 7.13% | 0.69% | -5.63% | 2.33% | 4.18% | 0.15% |
MMM - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MMM - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MMM Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MMM Distribution of Daily % Changes