Seasonality
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Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +6.6% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.5% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +11.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.0% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -23.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.70% | 3.78% | -12.88% | 5.16% | -6.05% | -0.71% | -8.94% | 4.34% | ||||
| 2025 | 5.35% | -11.21% | -0.87% | 9.59% | 4.50% | 0.40% | 4.72% | 7.22% | 2.39% | -2.73% | 1.65% | 0.04% |
| 2024 | 1.91% | 13.63% | 6.41% | -4.38% | -2.55% | -5.17% | 9.51% | -9.98% | 0.92% | 10.05% | 1.29% | -13.80% |
| 2023 | 6.41% | 0.06% | -1.16% | 2.29% | 9.77% | 15.99% | -3.30% | 0.15% | -8.05% | -0.38% | 13.79% | 7.39% |
| 2022 | -11.67% | -2.34% | 1.45% | -7.97% | -4.02% | -11.83% | 17.66% | -1.05% | -7.37% | 4.31% | 9.28% | -7.78% |
| 2021 | 1.21% | 17.41% | -0.31% | 5.15% | 3.14% | -3.26% | 3.27% | 5.11% | -10.38% | 14.97% | 2.87% | 9.17% |
| 2020 | -13.54% | -16.83% | 0.53% | 1.26% | 7.54% | 0.30% | -1.81% | 16.02% | 13.17% | -0.06% | 6.90% | |
| Avg | 1.32% | 1.11% | -3.46% | 1.48% | 0.86% | 0.42% | 3.32% | -0.06% | -1.08% | 6.57% | 4.80% | 0.32% |
MLM - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MLM - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MLM Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MLM Distribution of Daily % Changes