Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -9.22% | 14.90% | -29.00% | 1.69% | -6.83% | 6.44% | 1.87% | 7.41% | ||||
| 2025 | 1.30% | 6.97% | -0.36% | -6.31% | -5.13% | 4.25% | -6.28% | -0.37% | -4.92% | -3.45% | 5.17% | 1.64% |
| 2024 | -0.38% | 1.03% | 11.55% | -0.43% | -5.05% | -1.77% | 9.20% | 3.92% | 2.84% | -4.44% | 0.22% | -2.20% |
| 2023 | -9.37% | -1.06% | 11.96% | 6.06% | -2.41% | 1.75% | 3.05% | -8.27% | -7.85% | -15.01% | 1.46% | 6.19% |
| 2022 | 3.83% | -5.12% | 4.87% | 1.13% | -7.81% | -10.21% | 5.40% | -3.75% | -15.23% | 10.91% | 8.32% | -2.23% |
| 2021 | -6.34% | -5.87% | 5.79% | 1.73% | -1.44% | -0.83% | -4.33% | 2.52% | -6.10% | -0.57% | 6.97% | 13.01% |
| 2020 | -10.52% | -3.41% | 11.53% | 11.68% | 2.43% | 9.01% | 5.80% | -5.87% | -6.70% | 3.58% | 2.62% | |
| Avg | -3.36% | 0.04% | 0.20% | 2.20% | -2.43% | 0.29% | 2.56% | -0.03% | -6.19% | -3.21% | 4.29% | 3.17% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +4.3% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -6.2% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +4.2% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.1% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -15.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
MKC - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MKC Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MKC Distribution of Daily % Changes
MKC - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data