Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +8.7% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -8.3% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +13.4% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -4.5% historically, with January alone posting a 17% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +16.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
MGM - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -8.08% | 9.90% | 0.41% | 5.21% | 12.15% | 9.48% | -6.78% | -1.05% | ||||
| 2025 | -0.49% | 0.81% | -14.73% | 6.14% | 0.60% | 8.66% | 5.99% | 8.89% | -12.67% | -7.59% | 10.18% | 3.40% |
| 2024 | -2.93% | -0.21% | 9.08% | -16.46% | 1.85% | 10.63% | -3.31% | -12.52% | 3.99% | -5.68% | 3.99% | -9.62% |
| 2023 | 23.50% | 3.86% | 3.28% | 1.13% | -12.53% | 11.78% | 15.60% | -13.37% | -16.42% | -5.01% | 12.94% | 13.29% |
| 2022 | -4.81% | 3.68% | -5.30% | -2.15% | -14.79% | -17.21% | 13.06% | -0.28% | -8.94% | 19.68% | 3.63% | -9.03% |
| 2021 | -9.36% | 32.32% | 0.54% | 7.19% | 5.28% | -0.51% | -12.00% | 13.56% | 1.25% | 9.29% | -16.07% | 13.40% |
| 2020 | -20.93% | -51.60% | 42.63% | 2.08% | -2.20% | -4.23% | 39.84% | -3.32% | -5.43% | 37.34% | 11.55% | |
| Avg | -0.36% | 4.20% | -8.33% | 6.24% | -0.77% | 2.95% | 1.19% | 6.02% | -6.02% | 0.88% | 8.67% | 3.83% |
MGM - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MGM Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MGM Distribution of Daily % Changes