Seasonality
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Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +5.0% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
May shows persistent seasonal weakness.
May averages -3.6% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +4.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.2% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -6.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
MDT - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.18% | -5.15% | -10.55% | -6.56% | -8.84% | 6.94% | 9.15% | 6.89% | ||||
| 2025 | 13.70% | 1.32% | -1.57% | -5.68% | -2.10% | 5.92% | 3.52% | 2.85% | 3.40% | -4.77% | 16.13% | -8.13% |
| 2024 | 6.26% | -4.78% | 5.41% | -7.93% | 1.41% | -2.41% | 2.05% | 10.28% | 2.44% | -0.87% | -3.04% | -6.90% |
| 2023 | 7.68% | -1.06% | -1.80% | 12.81% | -9.00% | 7.29% | -0.39% | -7.13% | -3.03% | -9.95% | 12.34% | 4.79% |
| 2022 | 0.04% | 1.45% | 6.31% | -5.94% | -4.03% | -9.70% | 3.09% | -4.97% | -7.42% | 8.16% | -9.50% | -0.80% |
| 2021 | -4.96% | 5.07% | 1.50% | 10.83% | -3.31% | -1.45% | 5.78% | 1.65% | -5.63% | -4.38% | -10.98% | -2.43% |
| 2020 | -12.79% | -9.86% | 8.26% | 0.97% | -6.37% | 5.21% | 11.39% | -2.76% | -3.22% | 13.06% | 3.54% | |
| Avg | 4.98% | -2.28% | -1.51% | 0.83% | -3.56% | 0.03% | 4.06% | 2.35% | -2.17% | -2.50% | 3.00% | -1.65% |
MDT - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MDT Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MDT Distribution of Daily % Changes