Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +10.4% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Dec shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Dec averages -1.3% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +13.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +9.8% historically, with January alone posting a 100% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -12.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
MCK Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MCK Distribution of Daily % Changes
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.33% | 18.79% | -12.28% | -5.80% | -8.93% | 1.89% | 13.31% | 1.50% | ||||
| 2025 | 4.36% | 7.65% | 5.23% | 5.91% | 0.94% | 1.94% | -5.35% | -0.99% | 12.64% | 5.02% | 8.60% | -6.82% |
| 2024 | 7.97% | 4.43% | 2.96% | 0.07% | 6.03% | 2.65% | 5.65% | -8.95% | -11.88% | 1.25% | 25.55% | -9.22% |
| 2023 | 0.95% | -7.48% | 1.78% | 2.30% | 7.45% | 9.33% | -5.83% | 2.62% | 5.46% | 4.72% | 3.48% | -1.61% |
| 2022 | 3.28% | 7.29% | 11.34% | 1.14% | 6.31% | -0.75% | 4.71% | 7.60% | -7.39% | 14.56% | -1.84% | -1.72% |
| 2021 | 0.32% | -2.84% | 15.34% | -3.84% | 2.80% | -0.60% | 6.58% | 0.39% | -2.33% | 4.26% | 4.49% | 14.68% |
| 2020 | -1.66% | -3.29% | 4.43% | 12.63% | -3.31% | -2.12% | 2.46% | -2.94% | -0.97% | 22.27% | -3.33% | |
| Avg | 3.03% | 3.74% | 3.01% | 0.60% | 3.89% | 1.59% | 2.42% | 0.52% | -1.07% | 4.81% | 10.43% | -1.34% |
MCK - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MCK - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years