Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +11.3% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -5.4% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +17.6% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.1% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +16.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.15% | -1.11% | -13.44% | 43.80% | 2.38% | -3.65% | -18.54% | 6.57% | ||||
| 2025 | -5.32% | 9.21% | -17.75% | -4.81% | 26.93% | 21.24% | -3.95% | -3.17% | -1.20% | -2.80% | -13.39% | 18.93% |
| 2024 | -5.54% | -0.69% | 6.62% | 2.53% | 6.21% | -5.89% | -2.97% | -6.95% | -2.28% | -8.62% | -6.45% | -15.87% |
| 2023 | 10.49% | 4.84% | 3.39% | -12.88% | 3.62% | 19.04% | 4.86% | -12.43% | -4.63% | -8.66% | 17.65% | 8.08% |
| 2022 | -11.00% | -8.90% | 6.84% | -13.23% | 11.89% | -20.05% | 18.56% | -4.84% | -6.47% | 1.16% | 28.83% | -11.29% |
| 2021 | -1.45% | 12.42% | 1.70% | -3.18% | 4.73% | -4.59% | -4.42% | 10.29% | -2.46% | -3.46% | 12.92% | 4.35% |
| 2020 | -6.63% | -25.26% | 29.40% | 9.91% | 9.68% | -3.40% | 8.20% | -6.33% | 2.26% | 28.27% | 2.77% | |
| Avg | 1.05% | 1.30% | -5.41% | 5.95% | 9.38% | 2.25% | -1.41% | -1.48% | -3.89% | -3.35% | 11.31% | 1.16% |
MCHP - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MCHP - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MCHP Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MCHP Distribution of Daily % Changes