Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +3.2% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
May shows persistent seasonal weakness.
May averages -2.1% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +5.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.8% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -11.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.07% | 8.27% | -8.37% | -5.53% | -4.90% | -2.53% | 0.12% | 0.81% | ||||
| 2025 | -0.41% | 6.80% | 1.90% | 2.33% | -1.81% | -6.38% | 2.70% | 4.49% | -2.53% | -1.80% | 4.49% | -1.40% |
| 2024 | -1.28% | 0.42% | -3.53% | -3.16% | -5.18% | -0.93% | 4.14% | 8.76% | 6.10% | -4.07% | 1.34% | -1.48% |
| 2023 | 1.47% | -0.74% | 5.95% | 5.77% | -3.60% | 5.22% | -1.75% | -3.59% | -6.30% | -0.48% | 8.15% | 5.21% |
| 2022 | -3.22% | -5.13% | 1.03% | 0.76% | 1.22% | -1.57% | 6.68% | -3.69% | -8.54% | 18.17% | 0.61% | -3.39% |
| 2021 | -3.14% | -0.21% | 8.73% | 5.33% | -0.38% | -1.24% | 5.07% | -1.63% | 1.54% | 1.84% | 0.17% | 9.60% |
| 2020 | -8.69% | -14.84% | 13.43% | 0.00% | -0.99% | 5.32% | 10.55% | 2.80% | -2.96% | 2.69% | -1.32% | |
| Avg | -0.59% | 0.10% | -1.31% | 2.70% | -2.09% | -1.20% | 3.19% | 2.48% | -1.15% | 1.78% | 2.91% | 1.20% |
MCD - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MCD - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MCD Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MCD Distribution of Daily % Changes