Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +5.6% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.7% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +6.8% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.7% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -4.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
MAA - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MAA - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.22% | -0.33% | -8.77% | 7.08% | -0.09% | 7.65% | -3.65% | 0.87% | ||||
| 2025 | -0.29% | 10.18% | -0.32% | -3.81% | -1.88% | -5.52% | -2.80% | 2.38% | -4.18% | -7.18% | 5.97% | 2.22% |
| 2024 | -4.96% | -0.55% | 4.69% | -0.09% | 2.85% | 6.66% | -0.96% | 16.17% | -2.14% | -3.84% | 8.47% | -5.84% |
| 2023 | 7.13% | -3.97% | -5.66% | 2.79% | -4.38% | 3.26% | -0.56% | -2.96% | -11.42% | -7.19% | 5.36% | 8.02% |
| 2022 | -9.47% | -1.00% | 2.37% | -5.60% | -7.97% | -3.50% | 7.13% | -10.80% | -6.40% | 2.42% | 4.72% | -4.79% |
| 2021 | 5.64% | 1.49% | 7.15% | 9.74% | 2.14% | 4.80% | 15.31% | -0.38% | -2.92% | 9.92% | 1.00% | 11.24% |
| 2020 | -5.79% | -20.29% | 9.61% | 3.97% | -1.45% | 4.88% | -1.74% | -1.00% | 1.40% | 8.17% | 0.42% | |
| Avg | -0.69% | 0.00% | -2.98% | 2.82% | -0.77% | 1.70% | 2.76% | 0.45% | -4.67% | -0.74% | 5.62% | 1.88% |
MAA Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MAA Distribution of Daily % Changes