Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.07% | 11.47% | -5.94% | 3.56% | 6.63% | 8.73% | -4.90% | 8.23% | ||||
| 2025 | 11.72% | -0.91% | -8.91% | 1.43% | 3.58% | 10.27% | -2.37% | 12.72% | -1.86% | -8.49% | -12.09% | 8.41% |
| 2024 | -5.07% | 9.15% | 9.06% | -15.94% | 5.43% | 0.00% | 2.61% | 1.54% | 12.10% | 6.99% | 18.02% | -6.33% |
| 2023 | 15.41% | -10.47% | -2.86% | -3.17% | 17.94% | 13.97% | -3.69% | -3.67% | -1.76% | -3.64% | 5.25% | 11.14% |
| 2022 | -8.51% | 10.33% | -2.63% | -10.85% | -9.37% | -13.12% | 13.82% | -3.86% | -15.85% | 4.69% | -8.60% | -4.15% |
| 2021 | -9.57% | 33.72% | -4.74% | -3.27% | 10.05% | -2.80% | -9.93% | 9.90% | 5.11% | 11.00% | 5.44% | 12.23% |
| 2020 | -10.84% | -25.19% | -1.30% | 9.56% | -9.83% | 5.59% | 21.34% | -5.14% | -9.43% | 34.53% | 11.93% | |
| Avg | 1.01% | 6.06% | -5.89% | -4.22% | 6.26% | 1.03% | 0.16% | 6.33% | -1.23% | 0.19% | 7.09% | 5.54% |
LYV - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.1% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -5.9% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +12.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.2% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +22.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
LYV - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
LYV Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
LYV Distribution of Daily % Changes