Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.16% | 17.39% | 41.76% | -7.40% | -10.66% | -20.18% | 17.91% | 2.71% | ||||
| 2025 | 1.93% | 1.49% | -6.76% | -17.32% | -2.95% | 4.97% | 0.12% | -0.41% | -12.97% | -5.34% | 5.54% | -9.07% |
| 2024 | -1.01% | 6.54% | 3.28% | -2.26% | -0.55% | -2.47% | 3.97% | 0.61% | -2.84% | -9.44% | -4.04% | -9.43% |
| 2023 | 16.45% | -0.72% | -0.98% | 0.77% | -8.30% | 7.35% | 7.66% | 1.21% | -4.12% | -4.71% | 6.79% | -0.02% |
| 2022 | 4.88% | 0.52% | 6.96% | 3.12% | 7.75% | -18.96% | 1.90% | -5.63% | -9.30% | 1.55% | 12.72% | -2.33% |
| 2021 | -6.44% | 20.21% | 1.94% | -0.30% | 8.56% | -7.77% | -3.44% | 2.17% | -6.48% | -1.10% | -4.96% | 5.85% |
| 2020 | -6.84% | -30.55% | 16.76% | 10.03% | 4.56% | -4.87% | 6.35% | 7.65% | -2.89% | 25.80% | 7.71% | |
| Avg | 4.83% | 5.51% | 2.24% | -0.95% | 0.55% | -4.64% | 3.32% | 0.72% | -4.68% | -3.65% | 6.98% | -1.21% |
LYB - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.0% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.7% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +12.6% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +12.6% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +37.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
LYB - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
LYB Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
LYB Distribution of Daily % Changes