Seasonality
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LUV - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +9.4% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -6.4% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +11.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.1% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +4.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.98% | 3.66% | -23.40% | 0.93% | 13.26% | 20.24% | -12.54% | -1.58% | ||||
| 2025 | -8.66% | 1.14% | 8.75% | -16.74% | 19.38% | -2.26% | -4.65% | 6.37% | -2.46% | -5.05% | 14.88% | 19.25% |
| 2024 | 3.50% | 14.65% | -14.37% | -11.13% | 3.47% | 7.27% | -5.84% | 7.35% | 3.08% | 3.21% | 5.82% | 4.44% |
| 2023 | 6.79% | -6.12% | -2.58% | -6.91% | -1.39% | 21.87% | -5.66% | -7.49% | -13.84% | -17.88% | 15.02% | 13.64% |
| 2022 | 4.48% | -2.14% | 4.57% | 2.01% | -1.84% | -21.24% | 5.54% | -3.73% | -15.97% | 17.87% | 9.79% | -15.64% |
| 2021 | -5.73% | 32.29% | 5.04% | 2.82% | -2.10% | -13.62% | -4.84% | -1.46% | 3.31% | -8.07% | -6.09% | -3.51% |
| 2020 | -15.99% | -22.61% | -12.24% | 2.72% | 6.48% | -9.63% | 21.66% | -0.21% | 5.41% | 17.23% | 0.58% | |
| Avg | 2.56% | 3.93% | -6.37% | -5.90% | 4.79% | 2.68% | -5.38% | 3.78% | -4.35% | -0.75% | 9.44% | 3.13% |
LUV - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
LUV Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
LUV Distribution of Daily % Changes