Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +9.7% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jan shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jan averages -7.2% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +17.8% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -15.7% historically, with January alone posting a 17% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 183 of the year, the current YTD return is -34.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
LULU - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
LULU - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
LULU Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -16.03% | 6.11% | -17.32% | -10.06% | -4.73% | -12.96% | 4.11% | 1.17% | -15.48% | |||
| 2025 | 8.31% | -11.73% | -22.58% | -4.34% | 16.95% | -24.98% | -15.59% | 0.83% | -12.00% | -4.15% | 8.00% | 12.83% |
| 2024 | -11.24% | 2.92% | -16.37% | -7.69% | -13.48% | -4.26% | -13.40% | 0.31% | 4.58% | 9.78% | 7.64% | 19.26% |
| 2023 | -4.21% | 0.76% | 17.78% | 4.32% | -12.63% | 14.03% | 0.01% | 0.72% | 1.14% | 2.04% | 13.55% | 14.43% |
| 2022 | -14.74% | -4.14% | 14.16% | -2.90% | -17.47% | -6.86% | 13.90% | -3.40% | -6.80% | 17.70% | 15.58% | -15.76% |
| 2021 | -5.56% | -5.17% | -1.59% | 9.31% | -3.62% | 12.95% | 9.64% | 0.00% | 1.13% | 15.15% | -2.49% | -13.86% |
| 2020 | -9.18% | -12.81% | 17.90% | 34.28% | 3.97% | 4.35% | 15.38% | -12.32% | -3.06% | 15.95% | -5.99% | |
| Avg | -7.24% | -2.92% | -5.53% | 0.93% | -0.10% | -2.59% | 0.43% | 2.15% | -4.05% | 6.24% | 9.71% | 1.82% |
LULU Distribution of Daily % Changes