Seasonality
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LOW - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
LOW Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +5.5% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.2% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +9.1% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.6% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -9.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
LOW Distribution of Daily % Changes
LOW - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.24% | -0.93% | -10.69% | 1.55% | -10.23% | 2.86% | -5.17% | 5.13% | ||||
| 2025 | 5.83% | -4.38% | -6.20% | -3.64% | 0.97% | -1.71% | 1.30% | 15.43% | -2.62% | -4.78% | 1.83% | -0.54% |
| 2024 | -3.88% | 13.08% | 5.84% | -10.07% | -2.94% | -0.38% | 11.90% | 1.22% | 8.99% | -2.92% | 4.05% | -9.41% |
| 2023 | 5.06% | -1.20% | -2.81% | 4.45% | -3.22% | 12.22% | 4.29% | -1.62% | -9.82% | -7.77% | 4.33% | 11.93% |
| 2022 | -7.87% | -6.86% | -8.54% | -1.81% | -1.23% | -10.56% | 10.28% | 1.36% | -3.26% | 4.37% | 9.03% | -6.26% |
| 2021 | 4.32% | -4.26% | 19.05% | 3.50% | -0.72% | -0.44% | -0.25% | 5.81% | -0.51% | 15.68% | 4.61% | 5.68% |
| 2020 | -8.32% | -19.25% | 22.44% | 24.44% | 3.66% | 10.63% | 10.60% | 0.71% | -4.35% | -1.44% | 3.01% | |
| Avg | 2.45% | -1.84% | -3.23% | 2.34% | 1.01% | 0.81% | 4.71% | 5.47% | -1.08% | 0.04% | 3.73% | 0.73% |