Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.49% | 1.60% | -12.57% | 1.61% | 18.44% | 8.55% | -4.22% | 2.87% | ||||
| 2025 | 5.06% | 13.70% | -10.29% | 8.84% | -17.77% | 5.67% | -5.06% | -0.79% | 4.15% | 13.09% | 24.82% | -0.07% |
| 2024 | 10.75% | 16.94% | 3.22% | 0.40% | 5.20% | 10.37% | -11.17% | 19.53% | -7.72% | -6.34% | -3.99% | -2.94% |
| 2023 | -5.93% | -9.28% | 10.35% | 15.27% | 8.77% | 9.20% | -3.08% | 22.18% | -3.08% | 3.13% | 6.90% | -1.37% |
| 2022 | -11.16% | 2.28% | 14.57% | 2.01% | 7.66% | 3.44% | 1.68% | -8.33% | 7.34% | 11.98% | 2.77% | -1.41% |
| 2021 | 23.18% | -1.07% | -8.82% | -2.17% | 9.77% | 14.91% | 6.09% | 6.42% | -10.55% | 10.26% | -2.32% | 11.36% |
| 2020 | -9.21% | 9.98% | 11.48% | -0.63% | 7.34% | -8.46% | -0.78% | -0.25% | -11.86% | 12.22% | 15.92% | |
| Avg | 3.07% | 2.14% | 0.92% | 5.35% | 4.49% | 8.50% | -3.46% | 6.37% | -1.68% | 3.38% | 6.73% | 3.58% |
Jun is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jun averages +8.5% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jul shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jul averages -3.5% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +18.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +6.1% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -9.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
LLY - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
LLY - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
LLY Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
LLY Distribution of Daily % Changes