Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.37% | 5.05% | -24.06% | 4.54% | -0.58% | 0.79% | -8.45% | 5.44% | ||||
| 2025 | -0.22% | -8.85% | -4.05% | -4.93% | -2.33% | 4.27% | 1.86% | 18.68% | -5.33% | -1.38% | 6.08% | -21.71% |
| 2024 | 0.87% | 5.78% | 8.50% | -11.55% | 5.76% | -6.54% | 18.47% | 2.90% | 2.98% | -8.91% | 2.40% | -21.80% |
| 2023 | 13.58% | -5.53% | 8.65% | 7.69% | -5.04% | 16.98% | 1.52% | -6.10% | -5.76% | -4.63% | 19.91% | 16.51% |
| 2022 | -16.94% | -6.48% | -9.69% | -5.30% | 4.92% | -12.06% | 21.03% | -8.88% | -3.74% | 8.77% | 8.84% | 3.04% |
| 2021 | 9.40% | -0.22% | 22.01% | 2.59% | -4.43% | 0.34% | 6.11% | 2.05% | -12.70% | 6.95% | 5.12% | 10.58% |
| 2020 | -9.07% | -36.69% | 31.46% | 20.75% | 1.92% | 17.64% | 3.41% | 9.17% | -13.76% | 8.02% | 0.49% | |
| Avg | 2.18% | -2.76% | -5.05% | 3.50% | 2.72% | 0.82% | 8.31% | 2.01% | -2.57% | -2.16% | 8.40% | -2.15% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +8.4% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -5.0% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +7.8% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -5.6% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -19.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
LEN - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
LEN - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
LEN Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
LEN Distribution of Daily % Changes