Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +10.1% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.1% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +17.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.5% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +79.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
KEYS - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.47% | 42.07% | -8.12% | 23.92% | -3.31% | 3.47% | -8.85% | 12.14% | ||||
| 2025 | 11.03% | -10.55% | -6.12% | -2.92% | 8.01% | 4.34% | 0.03% | -0.29% | 7.03% | 4.60% | 8.19% | 2.65% |
| 2024 | -3.66% | 0.68% | 1.35% | -5.40% | -6.39% | -1.25% | 2.06% | 10.42% | 3.12% | -6.24% | 14.65% | -5.98% |
| 2023 | 4.84% | -10.81% | 0.95% | -10.43% | 11.86% | 3.49% | -3.80% | -17.25% | -0.74% | -7.75% | 11.34% | 17.07% |
| 2022 | -18.25% | -6.78% | 0.38% | -11.20% | 3.80% | -5.32% | 17.95% | 0.79% | -3.98% | 10.67% | 3.87% | -5.43% |
| 2021 | 7.19% | -0.05% | 1.33% | 0.66% | -1.36% | 8.45% | 6.57% | 9.01% | -8.41% | 9.57% | 8.03% | 6.19% |
| 2020 | 1.90% | -11.69% | 15.64% | 11.74% | -6.80% | -0.88% | -1.37% | 0.26% | 6.17% | 14.47% | 10.04% | |
| Avg | 1.27% | 2.35% | -3.13% | 1.47% | 3.48% | 0.91% | 1.87% | 0.22% | -0.45% | 2.83% | 10.09% | 4.09% |
KEYS - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
KEYS Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
KEYS Distribution of Daily % Changes