Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.22% | 10.35% | -12.28% | 11.66% | 2.14% | 9.77% | -4.92% | 1.03% | ||||
| 2025 | 0.67% | 4.42% | 2.78% | 1.08% | -2.66% | -1.12% | -1.24% | -10.90% | -11.52% | 6.47% | 2.72% | 0.39% |
| 2024 | -5.02% | -4.87% | 3.26% | 9.88% | 1.63% | -1.86% | 2.63% | 6.80% | 3.01% | -12.09% | -0.91% | -1.62% |
| 2023 | -0.51% | -2.07% | 2.69% | -7.31% | -4.83% | 1.14% | 8.76% | -1.06% | -5.54% | -3.93% | 4.09% | 5.54% |
| 2022 | 3.48% | 1.90% | -1.51% | -1.32% | -7.11% | 2.41% | 9.47% | -1.60% | -5.52% | 8.43% | -0.44% | -7.78% |
| 2021 | -0.15% | -4.03% | 13.10% | 4.31% | 3.10% | -4.14% | -0.09% | 1.31% | -3.71% | 5.65% | -5.82% | 8.44% |
| 2020 | -2.28% | -12.95% | 9.72% | 5.52% | 1.72% | 8.28% | -2.48% | -7.48% | -2.00% | 13.20% | 5.09% | |
| Avg | -0.46% | 0.49% | -0.70% | 4.00% | -0.32% | 1.13% | 3.27% | -1.32% | -5.13% | 0.42% | 2.14% | 1.68% |
Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +4.0% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -5.1% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +4.8% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.7% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +12.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
KDP - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
KDP - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
KDP Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
KDP Distribution of Daily % Changes