Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.02% | 11.76% | 0.24% | 27.05% | 8.05% | 5.74% | -18.27% | 15.28% | ||||
| 2025 | 12.86% | -4.57% | -12.17% | 7.71% | 14.69% | 29.81% | 2.32% | -8.18% | 6.02% | 1.71% | -4.57% | 8.22% |
| 2024 | -1.66% | 15.07% | -7.04% | -12.39% | 1.38% | -8.50% | 3.57% | -2.93% | 9.65% | 2.72% | 10.42% | 5.94% |
| 2023 | 15.29% | 5.70% | 6.18% | -11.35% | 14.66% | 20.57% | 2.54% | 3.47% | 10.90% | -3.22% | -6.03% | 10.48% |
| 2022 | -12.59% | -5.86% | 6.78% | -6.48% | 6.72% | -16.76% | 15.88% | 1.75% | -4.30% | 11.33% | 12.49% | -5.53% |
| 2021 | -2.73% | 4.54% | 20.82% | 0.50% | 7.86% | 2.96% | 2.44% | 3.90% | -5.52% | 2.72% | -2.38% | 20.34% |
| 2020 | -17.42% | -23.31% | 15.70% | 5.52% | 7.22% | 8.67% | -1.81% | 0.32% | -3.27% | 15.58% | 11.28% | |
| Avg | 2.53% | 1.32% | -1.21% | 2.96% | 8.41% | 5.86% | 2.45% | -0.64% | 2.85% | 2.00% | 4.25% | 8.45% |
JBL - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Dec is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Dec averages +8.5% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -1.2% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +17.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +2.6% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +36.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
JBL - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
JBL Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
JBL Distribution of Daily % Changes