Seasonality
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Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +7.6% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -6.7% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +15.1% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.8% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 187 of the year, the current YTD return is +19.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
JBHT - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
JBHT - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
JBHT Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.31% | 15.37% | -9.22% | 18.70% | 10.10% | 4.70% | -6.11% | -2.15% | -13.68% | |||
| 2025 | 0.33% | -5.61% | -8.21% | -11.74% | 6.67% | 3.42% | 0.31% | 0.97% | -7.46% | 25.86% | 3.29% | 11.72% |
| 2024 | 0.62% | 2.86% | -3.42% | -18.41% | -0.87% | -0.47% | 8.22% | 0.28% | -0.50% | 4.81% | 4.94% | -9.76% |
| 2023 | 8.43% | -4.17% | -2.95% | -0.10% | -4.52% | 8.42% | 12.66% | -7.69% | 0.34% | -8.83% | 8.06% | 7.81% |
| 2022 | -5.80% | 5.61% | -1.05% | -14.91% | 1.25% | -8.76% | 16.38% | -4.83% | -10.11% | 9.37% | 7.75% | -5.18% |
| 2021 | -1.46% | 9.29% | 14.43% | 1.57% | 0.66% | -5.01% | 3.38% | 5.50% | -5.74% | 17.92% | -2.91% | 6.93% |
| 2020 | -10.43% | -4.37% | 9.64% | 18.67% | 0.56% | 7.53% | 8.83% | -10.08% | -3.67% | 11.36% | 1.01% | |
| Avg | 1.07% | 1.85% | -2.11% | -2.18% | 4.57% | 0.41% | 6.05% | 0.13% | -6.75% | 7.58% | 5.41% | 2.09% |
JBHT Distribution of Daily % Changes