Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +10.2% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -5.1% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +19.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -5.4% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +20.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
IVZ - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
IVZ - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.88% | -3.00% | -7.50% | 7.90% | 9.43% | -7.27% | 12.16% | 10.70% | ||||
| 2025 | 10.01% | -8.55% | -12.77% | -8.17% | 5.22% | 9.06% | 33.23% | 5.22% | 4.80% | 3.31% | 4.08% | 7.44% |
| 2024 | -11.27% | -1.38% | 7.66% | -14.59% | 12.35% | -4.77% | 15.37% | 0.23% | 2.75% | -1.25% | 5.55% | -3.37% |
| 2023 | 2.89% | -3.64% | -7.13% | 4.45% | -15.03% | 16.90% | -0.06% | -4.09% | -8.79% | -10.67% | 11.71% | 25.02% |
| 2022 | -1.56% | -5.56% | 8.57% | -20.29% | 6.31% | -16.60% | 9.98% | -6.20% | -16.82% | 11.82% | 26.18% | -5.86% |
| 2021 | 18.13% | 9.64% | 12.49% | 7.06% | 6.30% | -6.31% | -8.79% | 4.55% | -4.78% | 5.39% | -11.54% | 3.09% |
| 2020 | -15.37% | -36.94% | -5.07% | -5.63% | 35.01% | -6.69% | 3.00% | 11.86% | 14.90% | 25.11% | 7.39% | |
| Avg | 3.68% | -3.98% | -5.09% | -4.10% | 2.71% | 3.72% | 7.89% | 0.45% | -1.83% | 3.92% | 10.18% | 5.62% |
IVZ Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
IVZ Distribution of Daily % Changes