Seasonality
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IRM - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +5.5% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.5% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +11.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +6.0% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +38.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.07% | 17.58% | -4.95% | 23.35% | 1.79% | -0.84% | -3.16% | 5.81% | ||||
| 2025 | -3.37% | -8.27% | -6.81% | 4.22% | 10.08% | 4.72% | -5.08% | -5.17% | 11.31% | 0.99% | -16.12% | -2.93% |
| 2024 | -3.52% | 16.47% | 2.83% | -3.35% | 4.09% | 11.89% | 14.44% | 10.43% | 5.56% | 4.12% | -0.05% | -14.46% |
| 2023 | 9.49% | -3.35% | 1.50% | 4.40% | -3.29% | 7.55% | 8.06% | 3.49% | -5.46% | -0.64% | 8.60% | 10.14% |
| 2022 | -12.25% | 7.10% | 14.07% | -3.03% | 0.32% | -8.50% | -0.41% | 8.50% | -15.47% | 13.87% | 8.51% | -7.21% |
| 2021 | 14.21% | 3.33% | 8.19% | 8.40% | 8.52% | -1.48% | 3.40% | 9.12% | -7.80% | 5.04% | -0.44% | 16.62% |
| 2020 | -3.80% | -19.87% | 1.60% | 6.53% | 3.64% | 8.01% | 6.74% | -9.08% | -2.72% | 5.53% | 9.43% | |
| Avg | 2.61% | 4.15% | -0.72% | 5.08% | 4.01% | 2.43% | 3.61% | 5.52% | -3.49% | 3.44% | 1.00% | 1.93% |
IRM - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
IRM Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
IRM Distribution of Daily % Changes