Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +11.5% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -7.4% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +10.5% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -10.1% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +8.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.10% | -22.31% | -4.63% | -7.14% | 15.05% | 6.04% | 21.63% | 0.70% | ||||
| 2025 | 2.47% | -6.24% | -6.62% | -12.04% | -9.51% | 12.30% | 17.94% | 2.66% | -0.46% | 13.96% | 6.26% | -2.00% |
| 2024 | -10.01% | 18.70% | 2.32% | -8.35% | -5.47% | -3.49% | 16.45% | 2.16% | -5.80% | -13.15% | -2.42% | -2.16% |
| 2023 | 11.97% | -9.13% | -4.60% | -5.36% | 4.61% | 14.15% | -0.45% | -0.51% | -11.62% | -8.09% | 18.40% | 8.07% |
| 2022 | -13.20% | -6.04% | 0.47% | -5.72% | -1.26% | 0.81% | 10.73% | -11.49% | -14.82% | 15.75% | 3.98% | -6.02% |
| 2021 | -0.76% | 8.43% | 0.18% | 21.51% | 2.33% | 0.90% | 2.22% | 4.86% | -7.77% | 9.13% | -0.88% | 8.88% |
| 2020 | -10.15% | -22.68% | 32.20% | 4.86% | -5.11% | 11.64% | 3.38% | -3.74% | -2.31% | 9.74% | 6.02% | |
| Avg | -1.24% | -3.82% | -5.08% | 2.16% | 1.52% | 3.66% | 11.45% | 0.18% | -7.37% | 2.55% | 5.85% | 2.13% |
IQV - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
IQV - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
IQV Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
IQV Distribution of Daily % Changes