Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.59% | 17.79% | -11.25% | -3.24% | 8.33% | 4.72% | 0.00% | 6.26% | ||||
| 2025 | 3.00% | -6.06% | -4.66% | 1.10% | -2.42% | -3.42% | -3.43% | -4.96% | -8.24% | 2.32% | 10.34% | -2.41% |
| 2024 | -0.36% | -6.42% | 14.44% | -1.56% | 13.62% | -0.60% | 4.48% | 4.53% | 1.30% | -5.24% | -8.12% | -7.02% |
| 2023 | 7.27% | -17.13% | -0.36% | 5.44% | -20.29% | 4.05% | 6.31% | -16.74% | -2.10% | 0.26% | 10.29% | 8.49% |
| 2022 | -12.43% | 0.82% | -0.63% | -7.64% | 8.96% | -9.25% | 4.14% | -10.94% | -17.11% | 7.46% | 8.41% | -0.15% |
| 2021 | 3.25% | 20.58% | 3.61% | 1.83% | -0.35% | 6.01% | 0.83% | 0.57% | -11.21% | 10.27% | -3.58% | 6.55% |
| 2020 | -8.64% | -14.14% | 28.36% | 1.65% | -7.49% | 2.85% | -1.72% | -0.45% | -16.16% | 9.20% | -2.23% | |
| Avg | 0.72% | 0.13% | -1.86% | 3.47% | 1.36% | -0.85% | 2.17% | -4.87% | -6.30% | -0.18% | 4.42% | 0.54% |
IFF - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +4.4% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -6.3% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +4.8% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.0% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +22.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
IFF - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
IFF Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
IFF Distribution of Daily % Changes