Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +5.9% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -2.6% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +8.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.7% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +39.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
IEX - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.99% | 5.50% | -9.51% | 14.93% | -2.88% | 7.65% | 1.87% | 3.68% | ||||
| 2025 | 7.52% | -13.37% | -6.87% | -3.87% | 4.38% | -2.95% | -6.51% | 0.61% | -1.06% | 5.80% | 1.44% | 2.31% |
| 2024 | -2.29% | 11.54% | 3.44% | -9.65% | -5.07% | -3.57% | 3.97% | -0.96% | 3.88% | 0.40% | 7.45% | -9.25% |
| 2023 | 5.24% | -6.13% | 2.69% | -10.70% | -3.47% | 8.42% | 5.21% | 0.26% | -8.12% | -7.70% | 5.37% | 7.65% |
| 2022 | -8.62% | -10.93% | -0.09% | -1.00% | 1.24% | -5.18% | 15.31% | -3.61% | -0.68% | 11.57% | 6.83% | -3.86% |
| 2021 | -6.31% | 4.82% | 7.25% | 7.11% | -0.44% | -1.17% | 3.27% | -1.19% | -7.61% | 7.83% | 0.91% | 5.22% |
| 2020 | -9.67% | -6.68% | 11.24% | 4.09% | -0.83% | 4.61% | 9.35% | 1.21% | -6.34% | 13.36% | 3.13% | |
| Avg | 1.26% | -2.61% | -1.40% | 1.15% | -0.31% | 0.34% | 3.96% | 0.74% | -2.06% | 1.93% | 5.89% | 0.87% |
IEX - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
IEX Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
IEX Distribution of Daily % Changes