Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +7.4% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -5.4% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +9.3% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.6% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is -32.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
IBM - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
IBM - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
IBM Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.54% | -21.23% | 0.91% | -4.71% | 29.88% | -5.57% | -20.47% | 5.32% | -0.47% | |||
| 2025 | 16.32% | -0.62% | -1.50% | -2.75% | 7.84% | 13.79% | -14.12% | -3.17% | 15.88% | 8.95% | 0.93% | -4.01% |
| 2024 | 12.30% | 1.66% | 3.20% | -12.97% | 1.39% | 3.66% | 11.10% | 6.12% | 9.38% | -6.50% | 10.88% | -3.33% |
| 2023 | -4.37% | -2.85% | 1.38% | -3.57% | 3.11% | 4.06% | 7.75% | 3.01% | -4.45% | 3.09% | 10.87% | 3.15% |
| 2022 | -0.07% | -7.18% | 6.13% | 1.68% | 6.29% | 1.69% | -7.37% | -0.55% | -7.50% | 16.40% | 8.96% | -5.38% |
| 2021 | -5.38% | 1.18% | 12.05% | 6.47% | 2.44% | 1.98% | -3.84% | 0.71% | -1.00% | -9.95% | -0.78% | 14.14% |
| 2020 | -8.50% | -14.77% | 13.19% | 0.81% | -3.31% | 1.80% | 1.61% | -1.33% | -8.23% | 12.23% | 1.91% | |
| Avg | 3.72% | -5.36% | 1.06% | -0.38% | 7.39% | 2.33% | -3.59% | 1.86% | 1.83% | 0.63% | 7.18% | 1.08% |
IBM Distribution of Daily % Changes