Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.44% | -4.83% | -5.79% | 18.53% | 9.40% | 0.18% | 1.09% | 4.63% | ||||
| 2025 | 23.08% | -5.88% | -18.99% | 3.78% | 22.20% | 5.70% | 18.32% | -4.94% | 10.56% | 2.25% | -7.59% | -0.97% |
| 2024 | 7.06% | 22.61% | 2.75% | 3.05% | 9.42% | -2.48% | -2.72% | 8.28% | 8.12% | 9.49% | 25.40% | -7.55% |
| 2023 | 10.49% | 7.84% | -4.12% | -5.70% | -0.67% | 7.56% | 5.13% | 4.41% | -4.96% | -7.50% | -2.66% | 6.50% |
| 2022 | -14.14% | -2.81% | -0.41% | -9.63% | 3.49% | -10.61% | 6.69% | 5.11% | 3.77% | 25.41% | 0.31% | -9.90% |
| 2021 | 0.44% | 18.46% | 0.90% | -2.08% | -5.82% | -2.27% | -5.89% | 4.66% | -3.56% | 13.65% | 4.33% | 7.59% |
| 2020 | 8.92% | -15.52% | -5.03% | 3.53% | -1.37% | 18.75% | 7.10% | -8.85% | -1.57% | 11.12% | 15.47% | |
| Avg | 7.23% | 6.33% | -5.88% | 0.42% | 5.94% | -0.47% | 5.91% | 4.10% | 0.85% | 6.96% | 5.15% | 1.86% |
Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +7.2% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -5.9% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +14.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +7.7% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +24.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
IBKR - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
IBKR - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
IBKR Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
IBKR Distribution of Daily % Changes