Seasonality
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Dec is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Dec averages +2.9% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -5.1% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +0.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.7% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +12.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
HRL - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.17% | 4.02% | -11.52% | -3.86% | 8.20% | 6.84% | 1.97% | -1.88% | ||||
| 2025 | -3.50% | -4.50% | 8.07% | -2.43% | 2.61% | -1.40% | -6.25% | -9.43% | -2.75% | -11.64% | 7.50% | 2.11% |
| 2024 | -4.57% | 16.30% | -1.22% | 2.75% | -12.88% | -1.58% | 6.28% | 1.37% | -2.61% | -2.75% | 6.15% | -3.27% |
| 2023 | 0.06% | -2.05% | -10.14% | 2.10% | -5.42% | 5.15% | 2.35% | -5.60% | -1.45% | -13.68% | -6.02% | 4.97% |
| 2022 | -2.23% | 0.36% | 8.19% | 2.15% | -7.10% | -2.69% | 4.74% | 1.91% | -9.63% | 2.80% | 1.18% | -3.09% |
| 2021 | 1.08% | -1.05% | 3.04% | -2.80% | 5.06% | -1.63% | -2.37% | -1.81% | -9.97% | 3.81% | -2.17% | 17.90% |
| 2020 | -11.98% | 12.12% | 0.95% | 4.23% | -1.15% | 5.89% | 0.24% | -4.10% | 0.05% | -3.10% | -1.21% | |
| Avg | -0.67% | 0.16% | 1.22% | -0.16% | -0.76% | 0.51% | 1.80% | -2.22% | -5.08% | -3.57% | 0.59% | 2.90% |
HRL - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
HRL Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
HRL Distribution of Daily % Changes