Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.8% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -6.4% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +10.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.4% historically, with January alone posting a 17% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +30.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -12.75% | -2.31% | 2.80% | 8.59% | 29.63% | -17.87% | 24.29% | 10.41% | ||||
| 2025 | -0.40% | -5.02% | -9.39% | -7.66% | -2.62% | -0.64% | 1.39% | 15.08% | -3.63% | 1.62% | -11.75% | -7.68% |
| 2024 | -4.59% | -1.32% | 7.63% | -7.05% | 29.94% | -3.32% | 3.06% | 0.25% | -0.03% | -0.98% | -0.25% | -7.13% |
| 2023 | 8.45% | 1.30% | 0.35% | 1.23% | -2.19% | 6.60% | 6.90% | -9.50% | -12.72% | 2.45% | 11.43% | 3.50% |
| 2022 | -2.50% | -6.45% | 6.39% | 0.91% | 6.03% | -15.07% | 1.86% | -14.02% | -12.43% | 10.83% | 8.76% | -9.73% |
| 2021 | -1.02% | 19.02% | 10.31% | 7.43% | -14.31% | 3.94% | -4.37% | 3.01% | -7.40% | 10.86% | 16.32% | 7.50% |
| 2020 | -2.49% | -15.72% | -10.66% | -2.39% | 16.25% | 0.86% | 11.21% | -1.97% | -5.42% | 22.10% | 13.06% | |
| Avg | -2.13% | 0.39% | 0.34% | -1.03% | 6.30% | -1.44% | 4.86% | 1.00% | -6.36% | 3.23% | 7.77% | -0.08% |
HPQ - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
HPQ Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
HPQ Distribution of Daily % Changes
HPQ - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years