Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +8.6% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jan shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jan averages -2.1% with only a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +15.5% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.2% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +141.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -10.41% | -0.23% | 11.61% | 20.83% | 49.60% | 5.12% | 6.18% | 22.57% | ||||
| 2025 | -0.75% | -6.51% | -21.48% | 5.12% | 6.54% | 19.21% | 1.17% | 9.09% | 9.39% | -0.57% | -10.44% | 10.49% |
| 2024 | -9.95% | -0.39% | 17.27% | -4.12% | 3.82% | 20.67% | -5.95% | -2.71% | 6.38% | -4.74% | 8.88% | 1.24% |
| 2023 | 1.07% | -3.22% | 2.94% | -10.11% | 0.70% | 17.35% | 3.45% | -2.24% | 2.96% | -11.46% | 9.95% | 1.20% |
| 2022 | 3.55% | -2.51% | 5.74% | -7.78% | 1.23% | -14.30% | 7.39% | -4.49% | -11.11% | 19.12% | 17.59% | -4.18% |
| 2021 | 4.13% | 17.99% | 8.99% | 1.78% | -0.37% | -7.94% | -0.55% | 6.62% | -7.07% | 2.81% | -2.05% | 10.75% |
| 2020 | -8.18% | -23.25% | 3.60% | -3.48% | 1.25% | 1.44% | -2.03% | -1.87% | -7.79% | 27.78% | 8.41% | |
| Avg | -2.06% | -0.44% | 0.26% | 1.33% | 8.29% | 5.91% | 1.88% | 0.71% | -0.22% | -0.44% | 8.62% | 4.65% |
HPE - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
HPE Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
HPE Distribution of Daily % Changes
HPE - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years