Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -12.04% | -23.75% | -8.64% | 5.18% | 29.37% | 6.34% | -13.68% | 10.40% | ||||
| 2025 | 39.43% | -3.56% | -16.93% | 18.00% | 34.70% | 41.54% | 10.06% | 0.95% | 37.63% | 2.51% | -12.46% | -11.98% |
| 2024 | -15.70% | 51.86% | 23.42% | -18.08% | 26.74% | 8.66% | -9.42% | -2.19% | 16.40% | 0.30% | 59.81% | -0.75% |
| 2023 | 27.89% | -3.27% | -3.58% | -8.86% | 0.79% | 11.88% | 28.86% | -15.32% | -9.92% | -6.83% | -3.72% | 44.77% |
| 2022 | -20.33% | -15.12% | 12.49% | -27.42% | 2.60% | -18.29% | 10.10% | 5.52% | 5.76% | 15.64% | -17.89% | -15.12% |
| 2021 | 26.09% | -5.05% | -16.90% | -25.82% | -31.53% | |||||||
| Avg | 3.85% | 1.23% | 1.35% | -6.24% | 18.84% | 10.03% | 5.18% | 3.01% | 8.96% | -1.05% | -0.02% | -2.92% |
May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +18.8% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Apr shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Apr averages -6.2% with only a 40% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +22.6% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +6.4% historically, with January alone posting a 40% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -46.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
HOOD - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
HOOD - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
HOOD Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
HOOD Distribution of Daily % Changes