Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +6.2% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.6% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +7.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +4.0% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 187 of the year, the current YTD return is -37.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
HII - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
HII - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
HII Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.65% | 6.04% | -14.54% | -4.11% | -15.04% | -9.18% | 16.64% | -10.38% | -8.65% | |||
| 2025 | 4.39% | -10.30% | 16.21% | 12.89% | -2.57% | 8.25% | 15.49% | -2.42% | 6.32% | 11.85% | -2.18% | 8.43% |
| 2024 | -0.28% | 13.14% | -0.05% | -4.99% | -8.13% | -2.67% | 13.66% | 1.46% | -6.50% | -30.04% | 7.74% | -4.52% |
| 2023 | -4.40% | -1.87% | -3.80% | -2.59% | 0.48% | 13.02% | 0.91% | -3.53% | -7.14% | 7.45% | 8.41% | 9.54% |
| 2022 | 0.25% | 9.88% | -2.43% | 6.67% | -0.50% | 3.50% | -0.45% | 6.71% | -3.80% | 16.06% | -9.28% | -0.55% |
| 2021 | -7.71% | 12.49% | 17.02% | 3.14% | 2.38% | -2.53% | -2.67% | 0.09% | -5.44% | 5.01% | -11.89% | 5.20% |
| 2020 | -20.88% | -11.35% | 5.05% | 4.96% | -12.71% | -0.45% | -12.19% | -7.11% | 4.78% | 9.35% | 6.42% | |
| Avg | 2.65% | 1.21% | 0.15% | 2.29% | -2.63% | -0.33% | 6.16% | -2.89% | -4.62% | 2.52% | 0.36% | 4.09% |
HII Distribution of Daily % Changes