Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +6.0% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -3.7% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +5.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -4.6% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is -9.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
HD - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
HD - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
HD Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.86% | 1.64% | -13.04% | -0.03% | -3.55% | 12.04% | -5.88% | -1.24% | -8.82% | |||
| 2025 | 5.91% | -3.73% | -7.01% | -1.64% | 2.16% | 0.17% | 0.24% | 10.68% | 0.18% | -6.32% | -5.97% | -2.97% |
| 2024 | 1.85% | 7.83% | 1.39% | -12.87% | 0.89% | 2.80% | 6.95% | 0.70% | 9.96% | -2.83% | 9.56% | -9.35% |
| 2023 | 2.63% | -8.52% | 0.24% | 1.84% | -5.01% | 9.59% | 7.47% | -0.43% | -8.52% | -5.78% | 10.86% | 10.55% |
| 2022 | -11.57% | -13.94% | -4.65% | 0.36% | 0.78% | -8.84% | 9.72% | -3.53% | -4.33% | 7.32% | 10.07% | -2.51% |
| 2021 | 1.96% | -4.61% | 18.90% | 6.03% | -1.47% | 0.52% | 2.92% | -0.61% | 1.15% | 13.25% | 7.77% | 4.02% |
| 2020 | -4.50% | -13.72% | 17.74% | 13.03% | 1.42% | 5.98% | 7.36% | -2.06% | -3.96% | 4.01% | -3.73% | |
| Avg | 1.61% | -3.69% | -2.55% | 1.63% | 0.98% | 2.53% | 3.91% | 1.85% | -0.60% | 0.28% | 6.05% | -0.67% |
HD Distribution of Daily % Changes