Seasonality
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Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +5.8% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -5.4% with only a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +5.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.8% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +12.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
HAS - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.91% | 12.28% | -6.01% | 2.39% | -10.09% | -3.37% | 13.74% | 2.94% | ||||
| 2025 | 3.45% | 12.57% | -4.53% | 0.67% | 8.89% | 10.66% | 1.82% | 8.95% | -6.55% | 0.61% | 9.25% | -0.73% |
| 2024 | -2.79% | 2.74% | 12.39% | 9.65% | -2.48% | -2.14% | 10.19% | 6.88% | 6.10% | -9.25% | 0.41% | -14.18% |
| 2023 | -1.85% | -7.03% | -2.40% | 11.63% | 0.22% | 9.13% | 0.80% | 11.52% | -8.14% | -30.66% | 2.79% | 10.02% |
| 2022 | -8.45% | 4.94% | -15.59% | 8.33% | 1.92% | -8.77% | -3.01% | 0.13% | -14.46% | -2.18% | -3.72% | -2.88% |
| 2021 | 0.30% | 0.61% | 2.57% | 4.18% | -3.50% | -1.51% | 5.92% | -1.14% | -9.25% | 8.09% | 1.20% | 5.03% |
| 2020 | -24.17% | -7.38% | 1.87% | 1.80% | 1.96% | -2.01% | 8.49% | 4.79% | 0.82% | 12.46% | 0.55% | |
| Avg | -0.07% | 0.28% | -2.99% | 5.53% | -0.46% | 0.85% | 3.92% | 5.81% | -4.59% | -5.43% | 3.73% | -0.37% |
HAS - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
HAS Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
HAS Distribution of Daily % Changes