Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -7.31% | 6.58% | -11.69% | 6.92% | 4.93% | -3.54% | 15.88% | 10.67% | ||||
| 2025 | 0.70% | -6.71% | -6.74% | -22.07% | -0.92% | 6.20% | -0.11% | 11.09% | -6.19% | -6.40% | -2.57% | 2.48% |
| 2024 | 4.91% | -2.65% | 3.25% | -8.15% | -17.04% | -4.80% | 5.11% | 9.22% | -7.53% | 1.26% | 14.70% | -5.60% |
| 2023 | 13.49% | -0.46% | -5.97% | 7.10% | -13.33% | 1.10% | 11.91% | 14.91% | -8.74% | -7.95% | 9.62% | 9.28% |
| 2022 | 10.87% | -11.01% | 2.79% | 0.10% | -4.34% | -15.40% | 10.56% | 1.56% | -12.86% | 5.75% | -9.17% | -4.05% |
| 2021 | -18.06% | 12.16% | 1.91% | 6.47% | -9.75% | -3.09% | 3.13% | -15.91% | -2.97% | -9.26% | -16.75% | 13.78% |
| 2020 | -5.87% | -21.51% | 15.11% | 8.11% | -5.40% | 4.95% | -0.79% | 0.66% | -11.17% | 23.74% | 10.48% | |
| Avg | 0.77% | -1.14% | -5.42% | 0.78% | -4.62% | -3.56% | 7.35% | 3.35% | -6.27% | -4.63% | 3.26% | 4.39% |
GPN - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +7.3% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -6.3% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +4.4% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -5.8% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +37.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
GPN - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
GPN Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
GPN Distribution of Daily % Changes