Seasonality
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Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +4.5% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.3% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +7.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.0% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is -0.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
GPC - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
GPC - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
GPC Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.04% | -14.20% | -10.52% | 1.40% | -7.95% | 20.84% | 5.42% | 9.09% | -4.35% | |||
| 2025 | -0.44% | 7.42% | -3.81% | -1.33% | 7.63% | -3.33% | 6.24% | 8.11% | 0.21% | -8.15% | 2.43% | -4.95% |
| 2024 | 1.25% | 7.15% | 3.80% | 1.47% | -8.31% | -3.37% | 6.35% | -2.62% | -1.78% | -17.88% | 10.49% | -7.12% |
| 2023 | -3.28% | 5.39% | -4.87% | 0.60% | -11.51% | 14.36% | -7.98% | -1.28% | -5.49% | -10.75% | 3.78% | 4.31% |
| 2022 | -4.97% | -8.31% | 3.90% | 3.20% | 5.14% | -2.08% | 14.94% | 2.05% | -3.74% | 19.11% | 3.08% | -4.89% |
| 2021 | -6.52% | 12.22% | 10.54% | 8.11% | 4.92% | -2.94% | 0.36% | -3.73% | -0.12% | 8.15% | -2.57% | 10.47% |
| 2020 | -6.76% | -22.13% | 17.75% | 5.21% | 5.19% | 3.67% | 4.76% | 1.58% | -4.98% | 8.78% | 2.93% | |
| Avg | -0.15% | 0.41% | -3.30% | 4.46% | -0.70% | 4.09% | 4.14% | 2.34% | -1.56% | -2.42% | 4.33% | 0.12% |
GPC Distribution of Daily % Changes