Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +11.7% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -6.7% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +18.6% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +7.6% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +49.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.22% | 34.12% | -13.33% | 32.71% | 7.21% | 5.36% | -32.68% | 11.26% | ||||
| 2025 | -3.69% | -8.83% | -6.98% | -9.69% | 6.78% | 17.26% | 35.95% | -4.85% | -9.64% | 0.37% | -9.75% | -10.06% |
| 2024 | -12.05% | -1.02% | 12.11% | 7.79% | 8.27% | -10.18% | 17.74% | 0.55% | 1.50% | 4.20% | 13.68% | -17.61% |
| 2023 | 19.81% | -0.49% | -10.00% | -5.36% | 6.55% | 36.92% | 3.06% | -22.70% | -8.29% | -22.84% | 39.25% | 10.40% |
| 2022 | -19.76% | 11.72% | -5.77% | -26.20% | 12.63% | -14.77% | 27.41% | -17.85% | -19.18% | -34.93% | -8.96% | -4.61% |
| 2021 | 8.36% | 33.74% | -0.64% | -1.07% | 1.47% | 26.29% | 1.01% | 4.20% | -6.48% | 22.00% | -15.51% | -16.46% |
| 2020 | -0.58% | -9.53% | 4.58% | 14.19% | 9.58% | 29.24% | 20.56% | 1.93% | 8.53% | 2.59% | 5.48% | |
| Avg | 2.65% | 9.81% | -4.88% | 0.40% | 8.16% | 10.07% | 11.68% | -3.35% | -6.69% | -3.78% | 3.55% | -5.48% |
GNRC - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
GNRC - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
GNRC Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
GNRC Distribution of Daily % Changes